Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6½
PART ONE OF TONIGHT'S PARLAY: The bottom line is that the Rams do NOT have a strong enough defense to win many games by a "margin" that would cover an inflated spread like this evening. Even though Tampa Bay has had enormous problems rushing the football behind a suspect offensive line, the Rams are ranked #29 in the league DEFENDING the run. Not only are they allowing 147 rushing yards per game, Seattle's Shaun Alexander rambled for an incredible 150 yards on them last week. In addition, the St. Louis secondary has managed just ONE INT so far this campaign. That Rams defense has NOT put much pressure on opposing QB's either, registering just SIX sacks so far in the 2004 campaign. Tampa Bay is an incredible 13-4 ATS SINCE 1992 versus excellent offensive teams like the Rams, who average at least SIX yards per play. Meanwhile, St. Louis is a horrible 1-10 ATS AT HOME SINCE 1992 versus soild defenses like the Bucs who allow an average of LESS than 285 total yards per game. Yes, St. Louis pulled off a dramatic win last week at Seattle, recovering from a 27-10 deficit with about 6:00 left on the clock. However, since 1992 the Rams have FAILED to cover 12 of 14 opportunities following an UPSET win as a road underdog!!!!! Yes, this is a trememdous percentage play according to my database. It is also a tremendous opportunity for Brian Griese to regain some CREDIBILITY as he will start at QB in place of the injured Chris Simms this week. Griese came off the bench to lead the Bucs to their first outright of the season last week, completing 16 of 19 passes for 194 yards. Due primarily to the play of Griese, the Bucs registered 20 points for only the SECOND time all season. Of course, Griese used to be a starter for the Bronocs and had two magical seasons where he threw for MORE than 3,000 total yards. Not only did Tampa get a jolt at the quarterback slot last week, they also regained two weeks ago the services of suspended running back Michael Pittman who performed superbly when Tampa won the Super Bowl in what now seems decades ago. Regular clients know that I love to take what I consider to be "defensive underdogs" in football. Despite all the offseason personell changes, which included defensive stallwarts Warren Sapp and John Lynch, the Bucs still are a force on the DEFENSIVE side of the football. The Bucs are ranked #4 overall of defense thus far in 2004, as the secondary in particular has been air tight (CB's Ronde Barber and Brian Kelly have a combined 51 tackles). Tampa's only problem on defense has been against the RUN, however, St. Louis head coach Mike Martz has admitted several times that he does NOT like rushing the football, as the pass plays greatly outnumber the rushing attempts. Thus the Tampa weakness on defense is pretty much negated. By the way, BOTH teams involved tonight have had severe difficulty with their offensive line play, as the St. Louis banged up unit has already allowed 12 SACKS. I want to remind all of you that St. Louis has already FAILED to cover a pair of home affairs against Arizona and New Orleans this season. In fact, the Saints came in and defeated them outright, so St. Louis is far from being an automatic play in front of the friendly fans.
Buccaneers/Rams O 42½
PART TWO OF TONIGHT'S PARLAY: Even though Tampa has had serious problems on offense, they are still 6-1 OVER the past 3 seasons against teams like the Rams who have a WINNING record. Even though the Bucs can NOT run the football behind a suspect offensive line, my database tells me St. Louis is 5-1 OVER the spot versus POOR rushing squads that average LESS than 91 yards per game on the ground. The fact of the matter is that Tampa's offense has generated only TWO meanigfull touchdowns all season, and they are the only NFL squad that has not yet had a rushing touchdown. However, two weeks ago Tampa regained the services of Michael Pittman, who provides them a ray of hope in the backfield. Speaking of a ray of hope, Brian Griese has alrwady thrown for more than 3,000 yards TWICE in his career as a starter with the Denver Broncos. As I mentioned in the analysis segment on tonight's "side", Griese has a shot at personal redemption this evening on a national stage. He was actually #3 on Jon Gruden's depth chart behind the tandem of Johnson and Simms. Johnson has already been benched, while Simms is injured. That is why Griese is getting a chance to improve on last week's stats where he completed 16-of-19 passes for a total of 194 yards. He will be throwing into a St. Louis secondary that has recorded only ONE interception so far. This may come as a shock to some of you, but the Bucs offense has averaged an incredible 28 POINTS PER GAME in the last 4 head-on meetings with the Rams!!! The one guarantee when handicapping a St. Louis total is that they have a head coach who prefers THROWING the football. Mike Martz in no uncertain terms has proclaimed several times to reporters that have taken him to task for NOT incorporating enough RUNNING plays to "get used to it" as far as throwing the football on offense is concerned. Actually, St. Louis quitely has averaged 116 yards per game on the ground. But the big story is that QB Marc Bulger LEADS THE NFL with a grand total of 1,426 passing yards. Tonight's posted total has been kept in check due to the offensive woes of Tampa Bay. I intend to take full advantage of the "value" that has created.
PART ONE OF TONIGHT'S PARLAY: The bottom line is that the Rams do NOT have a strong enough defense to win many games by a "margin" that would cover an inflated spread like this evening. Even though Tampa Bay has had enormous problems rushing the football behind a suspect offensive line, the Rams are ranked #29 in the league DEFENDING the run. Not only are they allowing 147 rushing yards per game, Seattle's Shaun Alexander rambled for an incredible 150 yards on them last week. In addition, the St. Louis secondary has managed just ONE INT so far this campaign. That Rams defense has NOT put much pressure on opposing QB's either, registering just SIX sacks so far in the 2004 campaign. Tampa Bay is an incredible 13-4 ATS SINCE 1992 versus excellent offensive teams like the Rams, who average at least SIX yards per play. Meanwhile, St. Louis is a horrible 1-10 ATS AT HOME SINCE 1992 versus soild defenses like the Bucs who allow an average of LESS than 285 total yards per game. Yes, St. Louis pulled off a dramatic win last week at Seattle, recovering from a 27-10 deficit with about 6:00 left on the clock. However, since 1992 the Rams have FAILED to cover 12 of 14 opportunities following an UPSET win as a road underdog!!!!! Yes, this is a trememdous percentage play according to my database. It is also a tremendous opportunity for Brian Griese to regain some CREDIBILITY as he will start at QB in place of the injured Chris Simms this week. Griese came off the bench to lead the Bucs to their first outright of the season last week, completing 16 of 19 passes for 194 yards. Due primarily to the play of Griese, the Bucs registered 20 points for only the SECOND time all season. Of course, Griese used to be a starter for the Bronocs and had two magical seasons where he threw for MORE than 3,000 total yards. Not only did Tampa get a jolt at the quarterback slot last week, they also regained two weeks ago the services of suspended running back Michael Pittman who performed superbly when Tampa won the Super Bowl in what now seems decades ago. Regular clients know that I love to take what I consider to be "defensive underdogs" in football. Despite all the offseason personell changes, which included defensive stallwarts Warren Sapp and John Lynch, the Bucs still are a force on the DEFENSIVE side of the football. The Bucs are ranked #4 overall of defense thus far in 2004, as the secondary in particular has been air tight (CB's Ronde Barber and Brian Kelly have a combined 51 tackles). Tampa's only problem on defense has been against the RUN, however, St. Louis head coach Mike Martz has admitted several times that he does NOT like rushing the football, as the pass plays greatly outnumber the rushing attempts. Thus the Tampa weakness on defense is pretty much negated. By the way, BOTH teams involved tonight have had severe difficulty with their offensive line play, as the St. Louis banged up unit has already allowed 12 SACKS. I want to remind all of you that St. Louis has already FAILED to cover a pair of home affairs against Arizona and New Orleans this season. In fact, the Saints came in and defeated them outright, so St. Louis is far from being an automatic play in front of the friendly fans.
Buccaneers/Rams O 42½
PART TWO OF TONIGHT'S PARLAY: Even though Tampa has had serious problems on offense, they are still 6-1 OVER the past 3 seasons against teams like the Rams who have a WINNING record. Even though the Bucs can NOT run the football behind a suspect offensive line, my database tells me St. Louis is 5-1 OVER the spot versus POOR rushing squads that average LESS than 91 yards per game on the ground. The fact of the matter is that Tampa's offense has generated only TWO meanigfull touchdowns all season, and they are the only NFL squad that has not yet had a rushing touchdown. However, two weeks ago Tampa regained the services of Michael Pittman, who provides them a ray of hope in the backfield. Speaking of a ray of hope, Brian Griese has alrwady thrown for more than 3,000 yards TWICE in his career as a starter with the Denver Broncos. As I mentioned in the analysis segment on tonight's "side", Griese has a shot at personal redemption this evening on a national stage. He was actually #3 on Jon Gruden's depth chart behind the tandem of Johnson and Simms. Johnson has already been benched, while Simms is injured. That is why Griese is getting a chance to improve on last week's stats where he completed 16-of-19 passes for a total of 194 yards. He will be throwing into a St. Louis secondary that has recorded only ONE interception so far. This may come as a shock to some of you, but the Bucs offense has averaged an incredible 28 POINTS PER GAME in the last 4 head-on meetings with the Rams!!! The one guarantee when handicapping a St. Louis total is that they have a head coach who prefers THROWING the football. Mike Martz in no uncertain terms has proclaimed several times to reporters that have taken him to task for NOT incorporating enough RUNNING plays to "get used to it" as far as throwing the football on offense is concerned. Actually, St. Louis quitely has averaged 116 yards per game on the ground. But the big story is that QB Marc Bulger LEADS THE NFL with a grand total of 1,426 passing yards. Tonight's posted total has been kept in check due to the offensive woes of Tampa Bay. I intend to take full advantage of the "value" that has created.
